Former Secretary of the Interior Deb Haaland has made her return to New Mexico and is running to be the state’s next governor. Recent data from BSP Research finds Democrat Deb Haaland with a solid 17% advantage at this stage in the race, over Republican Greg Hull. The survey, which focused on the upcoming governor’s race in New Mexico, asked registered voters statewide about who they would pick if the election were held today. . More specifically, 41% of the survey respondents plan to vote for Haaland, compared to 24% who intend to vote for Hull, with another 3% planning to vote for another candidate/write in candidate. A substantial 27% of the sample remains undecided, with 4% not planning to vote in the November election. Although the race has the potential to tighten given the large percentage of undecided voters, Haaland looks to be in a commanding position as we head into the final months of the race.
Not surprisingly, both candidates capture the majority of their own party, with 74% of self-identified Republicans indicating they will vote for Hull, and 77% of Democrats reporting they will vote for Haaland. Nearly half (49%) of self-reported Independents remain undecided at this point in the race, with Haaland having a modest 19% to 15% advantage among those who have solidified their voting decision. The candidate who is able to garner support from the lion share of these independents may very well be the state’s next Governor.
The survey identifies that Haaland has a wider lead among the state’s Hispanic population than the overall electorate in the state (41% Haaland to 16% for Hull) with a slightly higher 27% of Hispanics undecided at this point in the race than the general electorate. Haaland’s lead is tighter (10%) among non-Hispanic white voters, with a 40% to 30% clip and 23% undecided.
Haaland currently enjoys a robust 26% advantage in the Albuquerque Metro/Bernalillo County, with a much tighter 12% gap between Haaland and Hull (28% to 16%) across the rest of the state. Hull performs the best among registered voters 51 years of age and older and those making more than $80,000 annually.
Less than three months out from election day, things are looking good for the former Secretary. If this continues, she is poised to be the state’s next Governor and first ever of Native American descent.
The survey of 800 New Mexican registered voters was fielded between July 22 – August 7th 2026. The survey was fielded on-line in both English and Spanish and has an overall margin of error of +/- 3.5%. In regard to partisanship, 43% of respondents self-identify as Democrats, 33% Republican, and 25% Independent or Decline to State. The poll was led by Dr. Gabriel R. Sanchez, the Director of Research at BSP Research who can contacted at Gabe@bspresearch.com