The 2024 Presidential race is panning out to be one of the closest in U.S. history. Harris and Trump are in a statistical dead heat according to national and battleground polls. Nonetheless, some news outlets are reporting that there are polls trending in Trump’s favor.
Latino voters have long been part of the Democrat’s political coalition, and a robust Latino turnout and support could be the deciding factor in this close contest. My analysis of the Entravision/AltaMed tracking poll suggests that Harris and Democratic congressional candidates may be on the cusp of victory because of growing support among Latino voters.
The race between Harris and Trump was relatively stable for the first six weeks of the tracker. However, this week an important shift has emerged. Latino support for Harris has jumped 3points, while support for Trump has dropped by one point. The 27-point difference separating Harris and Trump is the largest gap recorded since the start of the tracker, and it may be the start of a Latino surge in support of Harris.
While the presidential contest is the leading news story, there is more at stake in 2024 than which party controls the presidency. Presidential power is intimately tied to the party that controls Congress. A single party controlling both the White House and Congress creates a condition called unified government and it increases the ability for a president to pass his or her agenda. The opposite is true under a divided government.
The Cook Political Report lists 25 competitive U.S. House races in 2024. Many of the 25 districts have significant numbers of Latino voters, whose vote choice will help determine the outcome of the races. The seven-week tracker shows that support for congressional Democratic candidates is increasing while support for Republican candidates is decreasing. Currently, a 25-point difference separates Latino support for Democrats and Republicans, the largest gap reported to date.
Latino voter turnout and vote choice is strongly influenced by get-out-the-vote (GOTV) efforts by candidates and parties. The tracking poll finds a significant increase in Latino enthusiasm for voting and an increase in Latino-targeted mobilization efforts. Respondents were asked to identify whether the source of their GOTV messages came from the Democratic Party, Republican Party, or some other organization.
The polling data shows that contact by the Democratic Party declined over the course of the first four weeks, while Republican Party contact increased during this period. Since then, Democratic Party contact is trending upward while Republican contact is trending downward. The contact gap, which stood at a 10-point difference in week 4, has widened to a 20-point difference in week 7.
In 2016 Latinos were often called Hillary Clinton’s firewall because of their steadfast support for her. In 2020, they propelled Joe Biden to the White House. In 2024, the leading stories about Latino voters revolve around their support for Donald Trump. To date, no one is calling them Harris’s firewall, particularly around the battleground states of Nevada and Arizona. Yet, Harris and the congressional Democratic candidates cannot win their respective offices without significant Latino support.
In week seven of the Entravision/AltaMed tracking poll, it appears that a Latino surge for Harris and congressional Democratic candidates is emerging. Although it is difficult to pinpoint all of the factors spurring the surge, growing Democratic Party mobilization efforts are a major contributor.
There is little doubt that Latinos could have been Harris’s firewall immediately after she secured the Democratic Party nomination. Latino voter enthusiasm for her candidacy was high, yet Democratic Party GOTV efforts became anemic. Indeed, while Democratic Party mobilization efforts declined, Republican efforts increased during the first four week of the tracking poll. Democrats may still win it all with the help of Latino voters, but had they struck earlier while the iron was hot, the race would not be dangerously close.