Kamala Harris is energizing Democrats according to pollsters. A recent NBC poll shows Harris leading Trump 49% to 44% among registered voters. While these numbers are compelling, most polling has yet to capture whether Latinos or other minoritized segments of the Democratic Party coalition are similarly energized by her nomination and campaign.

Latinos constitute one of the largest segments of the electorate and they will play a pivotal role in determining the outcome of this election. Yet, our understanding of Latinos is incomplete or skewed because of bad polling data. The 2024 Entravision/AltaMed weekly tracking poll corrects these deficiencies, creating a more complete picture of the Latino electorate. Armed with this data, my focus here is in determining whether Kamala Harris is energizing Hispanic voters and whether Democrats are capitalizing on this opportunity by intensifying Latino-focused Get Out the Vote (GOTV) campaigns.

Each week, tracking poll respondents are asked to state their likelihood of voting in the upcoming election. The table above documents those who indicate, “Almost certain I will vote.” For purposes of comparison, I include results from a similar question asked in a national survey of 3,000 Latino voters by UnidosUS in July 2024. What is most striking is that Latino voter turnout intention increased by 10 points between the UnidosUS Poll and the first week of the tracker (Sept 11-14), suggesting that Latinos were energized by Harris’s campaign. The tracking poll was launched after the Democratic National Convention and the first presidential debate, which may explain the enthusiasm bump in week one.

Nonetheless, the poll shows a decline in Latino voter enthusiasm. The decision to vote is shaped by a variety of factors. Simply put, people turn out to vote because they either have the resources to go to politics or because politics comes to them. Individual-level resources such as education rates do not change weekly, but the degree to which politics engages voters does. Are the campaigns effectively engaging Latino voters?

Democrats can re-energize Latino voters by developing and intensifying Latino-focused GOTV efforts. Historically, Latino-targeted campaigns are often last-minute symbolic affairs, leading many to conclude that the Democratic Party takes Latinos for granted. Kamala Harris and the Democrats have noted the high stakes of the 2024 Election and the importance of Latino voters. Are they backing those words with action? Are Democrats mobilizing Latino voters in 2024? How do those efforts compare with those being carried out by Republicans?

The polling data show that the Democratic Party is not capitalizing on the enthusiasm Harris generated after the Democratic National Convention and debate. In the first week, over half of Latinos said that they have not been encouraged to register or vote by a candidate, party, or community organization. Since then, the non-contact rate has fallen by a mere 4%. This is disheartening considering that we are in the final stretch of the election. Of course, this is a national snapshot of the Latino electorate, and it may be the case that targeting efforts are more intensified in battleground states.

Yet, the 2024 Election is not simply about winning a single office. CNN analysis projects that 9 out of 10 Senate seats are likely to flip are held by Democrats or Independents and there are 24 competitive House races. Democrats say the stakes are high in this election, yet they are not backing those words with action, at least when it comes to Latino voters.