Latinas are an emerging political force in American politics. While much is being made about the rise of Latino political power, it is worth noting that Latinas register and vote at higher rates than Latino men. Latinas are driving Latino political power.
The National Association of Latino Elected Officials (NALEO) estimated that 17.5 million Latinos will cast a vote on Election Day and their votes will determine the winner of several battleground states, including Pennsylvania. Since the majority of those votes will come from Latinas, we should take a deeper dive into their political behavior and attitudes during the 2024 election.
The Dobbs decision ending the constitutional right to abortion has elevated abortion and reproductive rights as significant policy issues for voters. Yet, the importance of abortion and reproductive rights varies across female and male voters.
In the Entravision/AltaMed tracking poll, there is a significant gender gap in attitudes toward abortion attitudes between Latino men and Latinas. A difference of 11-points separates men and women on abortion and reproductive rights as a top policy issue. However, the gender gap is most sizable among young Hispanics. A 25-point gender gap is found among Latino men and Latinas ages 18 to 29 years.
The emergence of a gender gap on abortion and reproductive rights in 2024 is significant considering that historically men and women held similar attitudes on this issue. In the past, the divide on this issue was largely the result of differences in levels of religiosity, ideology, and partisanship. Post-Dobbs, gender is an important factor underlying attitudes toward abortion.
Since the Dobbs decision, abortion restrictions have been consistently defeated by voters in red and blue states. In 2024, Kamala Harris is counting on women voters to give her a decisive victory because of her fierce opposition to Dobbs and her commitment to the passage of a federal law to codify abortion rights. Can Kamala Harris can count on the backing of Latina voters?
The data shows that Latinas strongly back Kamala Harris. A 10-point differences separates them from Latino men in their intended vote choice for Harris.
However, a 17-point gap separates young Latinas from Latino male voters. Harris’s support among men 30 years and older stands at 60% according to the tracking poll (data not shown). The loss of Latino male support for her that is highlighted by the media is largely coming from young men, a fact that is overlooked by other pollsters.
The decline in support for Harris and Democrats among young Latino men is troubling, but their turnout rates are historically low. Trump’s support by young Latino men will be overshadowed by the support Harris receives from Latino men over the age of 30 and Latinas over the age of 18. However, it remains to be seen how recent disparaging comments against Latinos and Puerto Ricans will shift Trump’s support among young Latino men. Puerto Rican superstar Bad Bunny’s endorsement of Harris may significantly erode Trump’s support among young Latino men.
What is evident from the table above is that Harris’s share of the Latino vote is rising, while Trump’s remains stagnant. Trump’s continued attacks on immigrants, Latinos and Puerto Ricans have stalled whatever gains he made early in his campaign. Should these trends continue, Latinos will deliver a decisive victory to Kamala Harris.
Latino political power is rising. Within this electorate, it is Latinas that are driving that power. The importance of the Latino vote emerged in 2008, when they were labeled Hillary Clinton’s political firewall. Since then, Latino voters have been seen as a critical voting block for the Democratic Party.
In 2024, the Democratic Latino firewall appeared to be cracking when polling data showed Donald Trump gaining support among Latino men. However, that loss is largely from young Latino men, and it is being offset by Latina voters. Secured by Latina voters, the Latino firewall is holding for Harris and the Democratic Party.