The media and pundits tend to portray Latino voters as a monolith. While some experts divide the Latino electorate by varying demographic characteristics, few consider differences across states. This oversight is ironic considering that presidential contests are state-by-state affairs and that all political offices are geographically divided. Although often ignored, state political context and culture are important factors in the shaping of political beliefs and behaviors.
This week, I analyze Latino voters in California, Texas, and Florida using the Entravision/AltaMed tracking poll. Why look at voting behavior in non-competitive states? There are important state-wide, district, and local races whose outcomes will be determined by Latino voters. Whether those outcomes will favor Democrats or Republicans is the focus of this analysis.
Before diving into the data, it is important to note that Latino voters in California, Texas and Florida are political heavyweights. Over half of the 18 million Latinos who will cast a vote on Election Day come from one of these states. According to the National Association of Latino Elected Officials (NALEO), 4.8 million Latinos will vote in California, 2.8 million will vote in Texas and over 2 million will vote in Florida.
To assess whether Latino political attitudes vary across California, Texas, and Florida, I first examine the top ten issue priorities for Hispanic voters in these states. The results show important attitudinal variations across issues and states. Often two states have similar attitudes on an issue, but that pairing is not consistent across other issues.
Regardless of geographic differences, Latinos are most alike when it comes to the top issue – cost of living and inflation. The cross-state differences in percentages are negligible. Jobs and the economy also cluster closely.
However, on the issue of housing costs, the attitudes of Californians and Floridians are similar (ranked 3rd most important), but Texas rank this as the sixth most important issue behind 1) cost of living/inflation, 2) jobs/economy, 3) abortion/reproductive rights, 4) gun violence, and 5) health care costs.
Access to abortion and reproductive rights is the third most important issue for Texans and fourth most important for Floridians. The enactment of abortion-restrictive laws in these states following the demise of Roe v Wade has elevated these issues among Latinos in those states who broadly oppose the ending of Roe. The presence of an abortion-rights amendment on Florida’s ballot is also elevating this issue among Floridians. In California, access to abortion and reproductive rights remains a fundamental right and the issue is not as pressing for Latinos in the state.
One of the two issues Latino Texans and Floridians differ most from Californias is health care costs. A recent story by the Texas State Tribune notes that Texas has more uninsured people than any other state, about 5.4 million or (18.4% of the state’s population). Florida ranks 46th among states with the greatest number of uninsured residents and it is one of the reasons why their rate of concern mirrors those of Texans. The uninsured rate in California is significantly lower than in Texas and Florida and it is the 7th most important issue for Californians.
The second issue on which Latino voters diverge in California, Florida, and Texas is border enforcement. Undocumented immigration has become a highly politicized and contentious issue in Texas. The Office of the Governor webpage notes that Governor Greg Abbott has overseen the transportation of over 105,000 migrants to sanctuary cities. It also lauds the launching Operation Lone Star which has intensified enforcement efforts along the U.S.-Mexico border. The anti-immigrant context in Texas is without a doubt driving Latino concerns in the state. There is a 10-point divide between Californians and Texans on the issue of border enforcement.
The Harris and Trump campaigns are battling for Latino voters outside of the solidly blue state of California and solidly red states of Texas and Florida. Nonetheless, there are about 16 competitive congressional races in California, Texas, and Florida where Latino voters will be pivotal in determining the outcome. Congressional candidates in these states are actively vying for the Latino vote.
To what degree are Latinos in these states backing Democratic or Republican candidates?
The polling data show that Latino voters are largely backing Democratic congressional candidates, but their level of support varies significantly across the states. In California, Democratic candidates have a 28-point advantage over Republican candidates. The advantage narrows in Texas to 16 points, while it narrows even further in Florida to a mere 6 points. Thus, outside California the likelihood of Democrats maintaining or flipping congressional seats is slim. This may come as a surprise to many who regard the Hispanic populations in California and Texas to be very similar across a wide range of socio-demographic indicators.
Throughout the 2024 Election, much has been written about the differences between Latina women and Latino men in their support for Democratic Party and Republican Party candidates. My analysis here adds another important dimension that is often overlooked – differences across states.
Latino voters are not a political monolith, as they are more different than alike across California, Texas, and Florida. These differences are not merely due to the distinct Hispanic ancestries in each state. A state’s political context profoundly impacts the political attitudes and behaviors of its residents. It is time to abandon notions of “the Latino vote” and embrace the idea of Latino voters across fifty states, each as diverse as its unique political culture.