Throughout the campaign, pundits and pollsters have been stressing the importance of economic issues as top policy priorities for voters. Our own polling, the 2024 Entravision/AltaMed weekly tracking poll, also confirms that the top three issues for Latinos are cost of living/inflation, jobs and the economy, and housing costs. Economic concerns today are as important as they were when Bill Clinton ran in 1992, which led his campaign strategist James Carville to exclaim, “It’s the economy, stupid.”
Among Latina women voters, however, abortion and reproductive rights rank as the second most important issue facing the nation. Reproductive rights have become more pressing since the overturning of Roe v. Wade in 2022. The National Latina Institute for Reproductive Justice, estimates that 6.7 million Latinas, or 43% of all reproductive age Latinas, live in one of 26 states with restrictive abortion laws. This week’s analysis focuses on the role of reproductive rights in Latina women’s voting behavior in the 2024 Election.
The influence of reproductive rights on women voters was first observed during the 2020 presidential election. Just 35 days before the 2020 presidential election, Trump nominated Amy Coney Barrett to replace the seat vacated by Ruth Bader Ginsburg. The Supreme Court was poised to overturn Roe v. Wade. Gallup, one of the oldest public opinion organizations, found that the percentage of respondents who said that a candidate must share their views on abortion was the highest on record. In a paper I co-authored for the Journal of Women Politics & Policy, we found that concerns over ending Roe v. Wade motivated women voter participation in the 2020 election.
Those fears were realized on June 24, 2022, when in a 6-to-3 decision, the Supreme Court struck down Roe v. Wade. The Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision resulted in unexpected political blowback from Democrats during the 2022 mid-term elections. Democratic voters broadly, and women in particular, blunted the anticipated Republican red wave.
Concerns over reproductive rights influenced women’s political participation in the 2020 and 2022 elections, and the Latino tracking poll shows that these issues will shape Latina women’s voting behavior in 2024.
Historically, men’s and women’s attitudes on reproductive rights issues differed little. However, Barrett’s replacement of Ginsburg on the Supreme Court and the Dobbs decision disrupted that pattern. The 2024 Latino tracking poll finds significant differences in abortion attitudes between Latina women and Latino men. For example, respondents were asked whether they agreed or disagreed with the following statement, “No matter what my personal beliefs about abortion are, I think it is wrong to make abortion illegal and take that choice away from everyone else.” A 20-point difference separates women and men when it comes to those who are most supportive of the statement.
Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have opposing views on the Dobbs decision. While Harris blasts the ruling and the expansion of the “Trump abortion ban,” Trump is desperately trying to soften his initial hard line position. Latina voters are reacting positively to Kamala Harris’s pro-choice message. In the fourth week of the tracking poll, 63% of Latinas are planning to vote for Harris, while her support among Latino men is at 54%.
However, when we look at the vote choice among those 18-29 years of age, the gender gap is colossal: A 20-point difference separates Latina women and Latino men in their support for Harris. This is a historic development considering there was no Latina/Latino gender gap in previous presidential elections.
One of the most noteworthy patterns among Latino voters in 2024 is the difference between men and women in their support for Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Pollsters and pundits are scrambling to come up with plausible explanations for the emergent Latina/Latino gender gap. A popular explanation is that Latino men are drawn to Trump’s machismo while Latinas are repulsed by his misogyny.
A more plausible explanation is that Latinas support Harris because they share similar policy positions. For Latina women, reproductive rights ranks as the second most important issue in this election, while this issue ranks fifth among men. For Latinas, their ability to access safe and legal abortions is a leading issue and they have found their advocate in Kamala Harris.