Latino support has coalesced behind presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris, and that support looks likely to expand.
In a new survey of Latinos across seven battleground states by SOMOS and BSP Research, Harris enjoys an initial +18 point advantage to Trump in a 2-way matchup (55-37); support for her increased 6 points during the survey, suggesting that Harris has room to improve further. “Harris enters as the nominee with a very strong lead among Latinos,” said BSP Research co-founder Gary Segura.
Among swing-state Latinos, Harris boasts a +25 point favorability rating (58-33), 41 percentage points higher than her opponent Donald Trump’s -16 favorability rating (39-55). In Arizona and Nevada, Harris is seeing significant improvement, with a +14 favorability in Arizona and nearly a 50-point net favorable view among Nevada Latinos (69-25). She also enjoys significant support among Latinos under age 29, with +20 point favorability advantage among young Latino men and +47 favorability advantage among young Latina women.
“The poll dovetails with other national polls finding similar advantages for Harris among Latino voters,” notes Greg Sargent of The New Republic. “But, significantly, the larger Latino sample size in the survey…provides a stronger basis for confidence that Harris’s lead among Hispanics is real.”
For Latino voters, a Harris nomination could re-energize the voter base that has held strong favorable views of the vice president for years. A California native, Harris benefited from significant Latino support during her 2016 victory in the state’s U.S. Senate contest. Running against fellow Democrat and former Representative Loretta Sanchez, a Latina, Sanchez had clear advantages to Harris. But Harris’ record and history was compelling to Latinos, and eventually enough Latinos backed the former state attorney general for her to win the Senate seat.
This same Latino support was energized by Harris in 2020 when she was picked as Biden’s running mate and we are yet again seeing it in her most recent bid for the presidency. Since joining the race, Harris has been seen as giving the Democratic ticket new life. While Biden has the support of Latinos across the country, many saw his age as a growing liability.
“What I think Harris has changed—and I think it’s already in the data—is you immediately removed the negative views that Latinos had toward the candidate,” says Harris pollster Matt Baretto, underscoring the popularity of the shift in the ticket.
Anaís Xitlali López, MPP is a senior analyst at BSP Research