Democrats are increasingly anxious about Kamala Harris’s fate, with some polls suggesting she is losing her Democratic base. One critical segment of that base is the Latino electorate, and they appear to be slipping away from Harris and the Democratic Party.
Much is being written about Harris’s waning Latino support. Yet, these analyses ignore Latinos who have known her the longest – Californios. Although California is solidly blue, there are six competitive House races that will determine the balance of power in Congress. According to the National Association of Latino Elected Officials, one out of four voters in California is Latino. Thus, the degree to which Latino voters in the Golden State are politically energized and supportive of Harris has wider political implications.
This week, I take a closer look at the Latino electorate in California by analyzing the 2024 Entravision/AltaMed tracking poll. The data allows me to answer two key questions: To what degree are Latinos in California supportive of Harris? How might that support help Democrats running for Congress?
Kamala Harris is native Californian with deep ties to Latino voters in the state. Her entry into public service started in 2003 when she was elected to the Office of District Attorney of the city and county of San Francisco. Her political ambition expanded in 2011 as California’s Attorney General, a post she held until 2017. That year, Harris was elected to the U.S. Senate. For each of these offices, Harris won with strong backing by Latino voters. Although Harris became a nationally recognized figure on the Biden-Harris ticket and as Vice President, California’s Latinos have known her for a considerably longer period of time.
Latinos in California have known Harris the longest, generating greater support for her candidacy among them. For example, while Harris’s favorability ratings are significantly higher than Trump’s broadly; Latinos in the Golden State relative to those in other states rate her more favorably (65% to 57% favorable). In addition, Trump’s standing among Californios relative to Latinos in other states is more negative (61% to 55% unfavorable).
Of course, being liked is one thing. Turning out to vote for Harris is another. When comparing Latino turnout, there is no significant difference between Californian and non-Californian Latinos. Respondents from California say they are almost certain to vote at a rate of 70%, while the percentage for Latinos outside of the state is only one point higher. Californios being politically energized is significant considering that the Harris campaign is largely focused on mobilizing Latino voters in competitive states.
Turning to the presidential vote choice, significant differences emerge between Latinos in California and those outside of the Golden State. Two-thirds (66%) of Latinos in California say they will vote for Harris in 2024. Outside of California, Harris appears to be struggling to win the hearts and minds of Latino voters, as a mere 55% are planning to vote for her. Moreover, Trump is close to winning nearly 40% of Latino voters outside of the state. This is troubling news for a campaign that needs to secure the Latino vote in competitive states.
Latino voters in California are among Harris’s biggest supporters. Their support stems from knowing Harris’s record on reproductive rights, environmental rights, civil rights, economic rights, and many other policies that are empowering to the Hispanic community.
Unfortunately, her campaign and the Democratic Party are failing to transmit that information to Latinos outside of California. The election clock is ticking, but there is still time for a robust information campaign for Latinos who do not know Harris the way Californios know her.
On a more positive note, the fact that Latinos in California are politically energized and supportive of Harris means that Democrats could win all six competitive House races. NBC Los Angeles lists Districts 27, 40, 41, 45, 47 and 49 as competitive. The Cook Political Report adds to the list Districts 13 and 22 as “Republican toss up,” 41 as “likely Republican,” 49 as “likely Democrat” and District 47 as “lean Democrat.”
Regardless of how each House district is rated, none of them are safe seats and all have sizable Latino electorates. Anticipated high Latino voter turnout and support for Democrats will alter the balance of power in Congress, which will be a check on Donald Trump should Kamala Harris fall short in November.